Tulio Myanmar ram Buainak (1)

- Ralkap Uknak Lakning Hrihhram.

1947 February 12 ah miphun phun li a simi Chin, Kachin, Shan le Bamar nih  rak sermi ram thar cu amin ah Union of Burma ti a hung si.. Independent a hmuh hnu thla thum in civil war aa thawk i, nihin tiang a si. Milu tam deuh miphun Bamar nih miphum hme deuh covo chuh (Burmanization) ruang ah Federal Movement a rak chuak. Cucu ralkap nih kan ram ca ah ṭhencheutu ṭihnung a si an rak ti ca ah 1962 March 2 ah uknak an rak lak__ Ralkap ruahnak ah a buaimi fim tawl a si.. Cu dih cun 1988, September 18 uknak laknak a chuak ṭhan. Cucu Ne Win sermi one party system kong le Ne Win cozah duh lo ruang ah a chuakmi 8888 mipi duh lonak langhternak ruang ah a rak si__ Ralkap ruahnak ahcun a buaimi fim tawl ti kha a si thiam. 2021 Feb 1 bal cu NLD nih thimfung an fir timi ruang ah a si bik__ MAH te nih ana thing an ti. Uknak an lakning idea kha aa khat pah dih. 

2010 thimnak kha zei ruahchan ah a tuah timi kong ah top-down democratization theory in chim ahcun ralkap pa nih hin innkaa onnak (regime open ca ah election tuah) a tuahnak cu ruahchannak pa thum he a si. A nganbik ruahchannak cu a ngan deuhmi ralkap ser (Broadened Dictatorship) a si i, opposite  party kha nawl ngeihnak pek nain cawl kho lo ding in tuam i, mipi nih opposite party  uarning (Supporting rate) tlakter kha a si. Mipi nih NLD nakin ralkap or USDP a tha deuh tiah an ruah i, ralkap or USDP an panh kha ralkap nih a rak i timh ciami BD cu a si. A pahnihnak cu, Narrow dictatorship a si_ Plan B kan ti lai. Ram chung ah buainak (ralkap duh lomi)a um tikah ralkap pa nih “repress” a hman ca ah a chuakmi result a si. Ralkap nih a ruahmi BD bantuk a si lo tikah uknak an lak than. Mipi an buai. Ralkap cu regime open a tuah hlan nakin a hme deuhmi “Narrow Dictatorship” ah aa chuah. Pathumnak cu Democratic Transition kha a si. Hihi cu ralkap pa a plan a si lo. Opposite party nih a tei tikah a chuakmi  result a si.

2021, February 1 uknak laknak cu NLD thimfung fir puh ruang ah a si. 2015- 2020 ah ralkap nih mipi nih NLD supporting rate a tlak ding kha aa rak i timh cia. Atak ah, NLD supporting rate a tla tiah ruah a si nain, 2020, November 8 thimnak result a chuah tikah “Wow” ti khi a si_ An tei lawlaw 82% leng bak in a si.. Experts min thangthang an lau. An ruahdamhmi aa palh. Ralkap zong nih a plan A a sungh cang ca ah plan B a hman. Cucaah, uknak a lak. Uknak a lak ca ah mipi an au i “Narrow dictatorship” a chuak_ NLD chan nakin ralkap supporting rate a tla. Eg, EAO nih NCA lam an ngol tak.

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The Chan

21/02/2021